Everything as a percentage: what share of your portfolio you bet, what each outcome pays on that bet, and what the two compound to over many trades. Runs in your browser — nothing is sent anywhere.
Click the chart or press 1 to keep re-rolling about 30 times a second — Esc or click again to stop. Hold R for a momentary burst.
One expected value, many different stories. The dashed line is the theory; the runs are what actually happening feels like — which is the point of knowing the spread as well as the average. Raise the attempts and the runs converge on the dashed line; that convergence is what expected value means.
| Outcome | Chance % | Payoff | Change |
|---|
Each block is one outcome, sized by how likely it is — these are the odds the runs above are drawn from.